CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2023-09-18T12:09:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2023-09-18T12:09ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/26974/-1
CME Note: Ear-shaped partial halo CME in the NW (or two CMEs moving in unison), with no clear source found, so it is likely backsided. To support the backsided assumption, there seems to be a faint opening of magnetic field lines/restructuring of magnetic field seemingly far behind the NW limb seen in GOES SUVI 284 around 2023-09-18T12Z. Although there is no clear front-sided source, there seems to be minor flaring in AR 3433 (delayed to a plage) and AR 3429 and there is seems to be a post-eruptive arcade that fills a dark filament channel W centered (N10W50) of AR3439 by 12:55Z. There is also a very minor eruption on the NW limb N of AR 3225(N23W81) starting at in AIA 304. These are very minor coronal signatures though. There are no CME arrival signatures at L1 on September 22-23 and the second half of 21.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-09-22T11:12Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 20.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:
Event id="398" SIDC URSIGRAM 30919 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 19 Sep 2023, 1230UT SIDC FORECAST ... Coronal mass ejections: A partial halo CME with angular width around 150 degrees was first seen at 11:12 UTC on 18 September by LASCO-C2. The CME most likely originated (the eruption signatures are weak) in the vicinity of NOAA AR 3436 in the NW quadrant, it was slow (around 300 km/s) and mostly directed to the NW. Nevertheless, a glancing blow at the Earth cannot be discarded on 22 September.Lead Time: 77.63 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Hannah Hermann (M2M Office) on 2023-09-19T05:34Z
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